Retail Data Weaker Than Expected Boosts Copper Prices, SHFE Copper Holds Firm at 80,000 Mark [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM March 18 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,829, dipped to a low of $9,798.5 during the session, then fluctuated upward to a high of $9,880, and finally closed at $9,864.5. This marked an increase of $71.5 or 0.73% from the previous close ($9,793), with a trading volume of 14,286 lots and an open interest of 296,460 lots. Overnight, the SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 80,270 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 79,970 yuan/mt during the session, then fluctuated upward to a high of 80,380 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 80,370 yuan/mt. This represented an increase of 260 yuan or 0.32% from the previous close (80,520 yuan/mt), with a trading volume of 33,634 lots and an open interest of 231,565 lots. Macro side, the US February retail sales month-on-month growth recorded 0.2%, below the expected 0.6%, with the previous value revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%. The weaker-than-expected retail sales data caused the US dollar index to plunge during the session, providing support for copper prices. Additionally, the OECD lowered its global economic growth outlook, revising the US 2025 growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.2%. Fundamentally, on the last trading day of the 2503 contract, the narrowing price spread between futures contracts led to a slight recovery in trading during the morning session. However, copper prices climbed back above the 80,000 yuan mark in the afternoon, with downstream consumption under significant pressure. Meanwhile, imported copper arrivals in late March are expected to remain limited, and domestic arrivals are also constrained, with only a slight discount anticipated today. As of Monday, March 17, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China decreased by 6,500 mt from last Thursday to 349,000 mt, down 28,000 mt from the highest level this year. Furthermore, current nationwide inventories are 46,400 mt lower YoY. In summary, with economic growth expectations revised downward and retail sales data falling short of expectations, the US dollar index continues to weaken, and copper prices are expected to remain resilient today.